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Weekly Summary

Power: Jan 10-14: Prices rally as chilly winter climate boosts demand

In the day-ahead market on JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange), the 24-hour spot power prices for Jan 10-14 delivery stretched rises from the previous week in both East Japan and West Japan. Amid chilly winter climate throughout the week, brisk demand pushed spot prices higher. Especially for Jan 11 delivery after the three-day weekend, spot prices hit the intraday high of Yen 80.00 in several windows in four areas from Hokkaido to Chubu, pushing up the base price in those four areas to the Yen 36 level. The base price in four areas from Hokuriku to Shikoku also leaped to the Yen 31 level. The price hikes were driven by the stronger demand outlook, at a time when the new semester began in many public schools on Jan 11 and some large makers resumed full-fledged operation at their factories after the new-year break. Besides that, rain clouds spread out across Japan and limited solar power generation tightened up supply-demand fundamentals.

 

Meanwhile, volumes of bids for Jan 13 delivery expanded to 1,627.48 mil kWh, significantly outstripping the previous record. JEPX later unveiled the irregular growth in bid volumes was caused by a wrong order by one of trade participants. The wrong order mistakenly added 18 mil kW or nearly 400 mil kWh per day above the real volumes. JEPX said the incremental bids created by the wrong order were not met by any offers, leaving no impact on spot prices. But a source at a power producer and supplier said, "Such a huge volume was mistakenly placed in the auction, and I doubt if there was actually no impact. JEPX has a responsibility to make proper explanation."

 

The actual highest price during the week was at Yen 80.00 in Hokkaido, Tohoku, Tokyo, Chubu and the System Price for Jan 11 delivery. The actual lowest price during the week was at Yen 0.01 in Kyushu for Jan 10 delivery.

 

By area, the weekly average of the 24-hour spot prices was at Yen 25.57 in Hokkaido, up Yen 2.61 from the previous week, Yen 25.71 in Tohoku and Tokyo, up Yen 2.76, Yen 25.51 in Chubu, up Yen 2.67, Yen 24.44 in Hokuriku, Kansai and Chugoku, up Yen 2.46, Yen 24.44 in Shikoku, up Yen 2.47, and Yen 18.90 in Kyushu, up Yen 2.62.

 

Power demand in nine areas of Japan during Jan 10-14 was a combined 14,901.94 mil kWh, up 8.6% from 13,718.22 mil kWh during Jan 3-7. The figure was up 0.3% from the corresponding period a year earlier. Demand during Jan 11-15, 2021 after day of week adjustment was 14,855.46 mil kWh.

 

In the JEPX forward market, no deals were reported during Jan 10-14.

 

Deals reported on TOCOM (Tokyo Commodity Exchange) during Jan 10-14 were as below.

 

Deals reported on EEX (European Energy Exchange) during Jan 10-14 were as below.

 

In the week starting Jan 17, spot prices are likely to keep the current strength. Snowfalls will continue to cover North Japan and Hokuriku. In other areas, the weather is forecast to be mostly sunny, but chilly winter climate is expected to persist across Japan. Spot prices will have a high chance to stay above Yen 50 especially from evening onward.

 

Tokyo : Electricity Team  N.Honma   +81-3-3552-2411Copyright © RIM Intelligence Co. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.