In the day-ahead market on JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange), the 24-hour spot power prices on a weekly average basis for Oct 28-Nov 1 delivery weakened from the previous week in both East Japan (50Hz) and West Japan (60Hz). Especially, West Japan deepened falls as alleviated post-summer heat dented buying interest. Meanwhile, lower temperatures are making spot prices more sensitive to photovoltaic generation. A fluctuation in solar power supply is causing a wild swing in midday prices.

Tohoku EPC reactivated the 825MW No2 BWR (Boiling Water Reactor) at its Onagawa nuclear power station in Miyagi prefecture at 19:00 hours on Oct 29. In East Japan (50Hz), it was the first reactor that was sent back on line since the devastating earthquake in 2011. Onagawa also marked the first post-quake startup for the BWR type across Japan. The reactor is scheduled to resume power generation in early November.

In Tokyo and Kansai, the key areas in East Japan and West Japan, the 24-hour average posted a difference in favor of the East by Yen 7.58 for Oct 28 delivery, Yen 7.22 for Oct 29 delivery, Yen 5.61 for Oct 30 delivery, Yen 2.51 for Oct 31 delivery, and Yen 3.13 for Nov 1 delivery.

In the fuel markets, LNG, coal and crude oil prices lost ground from the end of the previous week.

DES Northeast Asia spot LNG prices hovered in the mid $13 level per mmBtu for prompt December 2024 arrival as of Oct 31, down about 30cts from the end of the previous week (Oct 25). The LNG market mirrored a fall in European natural gas prices. Slack buying interest in Northeast Asia also continued to inject bearishness into LNG prices. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced on Oct 30 that Japan's LNG inventories for power generation stood at 2.07 mil mt as of Oct 27, down 100,000mt from a week before. The level was down from 2.19 mil mt as of end-October last year, but up from the average of past five years at 2.02 mil mt.

FOB Newcastle thermal coal prices in Australia stood at slightly above $144 per ton for November 2024 loading as of Oct 31. The level was down slightly less than $1 from the end of the previous week in tandem with lower gas prices.

In the crude oil market, WTI crude for December 2024 stood in the mid $70 level as of the afternoon on Nov 1 while Brent crude for December 2024 was trading in the low $73 level. Compared with the end of the previous week, WTI was down about $1 while Brent gave up slightly less than $3. In the first half of the week, crude futures plummeted amid alleviated caution over geopolitical risks in the Middle East. But from the middle of the week onward, crude prices pared the losses as some media reported that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC, or OPEC plus, could delay their planned output hike by more than one month from the original plan to do so starting December. An unexpected drawdown in US crude oil inventories also lent support to crude futures.

The actual highest price during the week was at Yen 21.08 in East Japan for Oct 29 delivery. Meanwhile, the actual lowest price during the week was at Yen 2.01 in West Japan for Oct 30 delivery.

By area, the weekly average of the 24-hour spot prices was at Yen 14.12 in Hokkaido, up Yen 0.49 from the previous week, Yen 14.31 in Tohoku, down Yen 0.91, Yen 15.27 in Tokyo, down Yen 0.98, Yen 11.61 in Chubu, down Yen 1.22, Yen 10.06 in Hokuriku, Kansai and Chugoku, down Yen 1.92, Yen 10.02 in Shikoku, down Yen 1.87, and Yen 9.96 in Kyushu, down Yen 1.28.

In the JEPX auction, volumes of offers were 991.11 mil kWh on a weekly average basis, up 3.5% from the previous week. Meanwhile, bids on a weekly average basis waned by 4.9% to 870.72 mil kWh. The weekly average of trade volumes increased marginally by 0.2% to 664.98 mil kWh.

Power demand in nine areas of Japan during Oct 28-Nov 1 was a combined 10,421.71 mil kWh, down 1.8% from 10,608.65 mil kWh during Oct 21-25. The figure was up 1.2% from the corresponding period a year earlier. Demand during Oct 30-Nov 3, 2023 after day of week adjustment was 10,293.79 mil kWh.

Deals reported on TOCOM (Tokyo Commodity Exchange) during Oct 28-Nov 1 were as below.

Deals reported on EEX (European Energy Exchange) during Oct 28-Nov 1 were as below.

In the week starting Nov 4, spot prices are expected to soften from the final week of October led by day time. Ample solar power supply will be expected throughout the week, a factor that is likely to pressure down midday prices. But the temperatures will be relatively high at the beginning of the week. The day's high is forecast to rise near the summer day indicator of 25 degrees widely in West Japan, and air-conditioning demand could emerge from time to time. But typical autumn climate is expected to arrive from the middle of the week onward. The temperatures will be too mild to use neither air-conditioners nor heaters, so that spot prices will likely track a downward trend. But with many thermal units still off line, there is still a risk of price hikes in case of any troubles at generation facilities.