In the day-ahead market on JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange), the 24-hour spot power prices on a weekly average basis for Nov 11-15 delivery deepened losses from the previous week in East Japan (50Hz), but rebounded in West Japan (60Hz). The contrast in price trends came as price decoupling at the Tokyo-Chubu border almost halved from the previous week. The Tokyo-Chubu decoupling occurred in 103 windows for Nov 11-15, compared with 197 windows for Nov 4-8. Meanwhile, spot prices in West Japan leaped to mark the intraday high of Yen 36.00 during 15:30-16:00 hours for Nov 15 delivery. The spike was observed only in one window, sandwiched by the Yen 18 level and Yen 17 level in adjacent windows. Thus, many players found it "difficult to attribute the phenomenon to any clear reasons". But a source at a power producer and supplier said, "Judging from the bid curve, the high price may have been driven by some reasons on the bid side. Other than that, maintenance works are underway at interconnection lines, so that it could be the reason behind the spike."

In Tokyo and Kansai, the key areas in East Japan and West Japan, the 24-hour average posted a difference in favor of the East by Yen 2.91 for Nov 11 delivery, Yen 2.00 for Nov 12 delivery, Yen 0.97 for Nov 13 delivery, Yen 1.53 for Nov 14 delivery, and Yen 1.11 for Nov 15 delivery.

In the fuel markets, LNG and coal prices weakened from the end of the previous week while Crude oil prices gained ground.

DES Northeast Asia spot LNG prices hovered in the high $13 level per mmBtu for prompt December 2024 arrival as of Nov 14, up about 20cts from the end of the previous week (Nov 8). The LNG market was lifted by a strength in European natural gas prices that got a boost from falling temperatures and lower output from wind generation in Europe. LNG prices tentatively rose above $14 in the middle of the week, but came under pressure from growing selling pressure combined with a continued slump in buying interest in the latter half of the week. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced on Nov 13 that Japan's LNG inventories for power generation stood at 2.21 mil mt as of Nov 10, up 90,000mt from a week before. The level was up both from 2.16 mil mt as of end-November last year and the average of past five years at 2.13 mil mt.

FOB Newcastle thermal coal prices in Australia stood in the mid $141 level per ton for November 2024 loading as of Nov 14. The level was down nearly $2 from the end of the previous week, in response to a fall in crude oil prices.

In the crude oil market, WTI crude for December 2024 stood in the low $68 level as of the afternoon on Nov 15 while Brent crude for January 2025 was trading at slightly below $72. Compared with the end of the previous week, WTI was down about $5.00 while Brent tumbled by nearly $2. At the beginning of the week, crude futures came under pressure from uncertainty over the outlook of the Chinese economy. Bargain hunting later lifted crude futures moderately, but the market's upside room was limited throughout the week.

The actual highest price during the week was at Yen 36.00 in West Japan for Nov 15 delivery. Meanwhile, the actual lowest price during the week was at Yen 0.01 in Kyushu during Nov 11-14 and Shikoku as well for Nov 12 and Nov 13 delivery.

By area, the weekly average of the 24-hour spot prices was at Yen 13.29 in Hokkaido, down Yen 0.57 from the previous week, Yen 13.32 in Tohoku, down Yen 0.45, Yen 13.69 in Tokyo, down Yen 0.24, Yen 13.09 in Chubu, up Yen 1.28, Yen 11.98 in Hokuriku, Kansai and Chugoku, up Yen 2.15, Yen 9.76 in Shikoku, up Yen 0.87, and Yen 10.10 in Kyushu, up Yen 1.21.

In the JEPX auction, volumes of offers were 1,071.92 mil kWh on a weekly average basis, up 2.8% from the previous week. Meanwhile, bids on a weekly average basis grew by 2.9% to 894.00 mil kWh. The weekly average of trade volumes increased by 1.2% to 698.10 mil kWh.

Power demand in nine areas of Japan during Nov 11-15 was a combined 10,621.17 mil kWh, up 2.0% from 10,410.86 mil kWh during Nov 4-8. The figure was down 8.2% from the corresponding period a year earlier. Demand during Nov 13-17, 2023 after day of week adjustment was 11,566.54 mil kWh.

Deals reported on TOCOM (Tokyo Commodity Exchange) during Nov 11-15 were as below.

Deals reported on EEX (European Energy Exchange) during Nov 11-15 were as below.

In the week starting Nov 18, spot prices are expected to hover in a tight range from the week ending Nov 11. But the highest temperature in Kanto is forecast to drop near 10 degrees in the middle of the week, and a possible pickup in heating demand may impact spot prices. Meanwhile, the lowest temperature is forecast to fall below 10 degrees across Japan, a factor that will likely inject bullishness into night time prices. Meanwhile, the weather is forecast to be sunny across Japan mostly during the week, so that photovoltaic generation is believed to put a lid on day time prices.