In the day-ahead market on JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange), the 24-hour spot power prices on a weekly average basis for Nov 18-22 delivery strengthened from the previous week in both East Japan (50Hz) and West Japan (60Hz). In East Japan, lower temps in Kanto boosted heating demand, and a pickup in spot purchases led to the price increase. West Japan had relatively mild climate, but the status of cross-regional decoupling gave a bullish impact on spot prices. Price decoupling at the Tokyo-Chubu border occurred in 89 windows during the week, down from 103 windows in the previous week. The lighter decoupling facilitated an impact from high-priced power supply in East Japan. Meanwhile, Shikoku faced heavy decoupling against the mainland due to maintenance works at interconnection lines. A shrinking inflow of low-priced power supply from Shikoku to the mainland also lifted spot prices in West Japan.

In Tokyo and Kansai, the key areas in East Japan and West Japan, the 24-hour average posted a difference in favor of the East by Yen 1.47 for Nov 18 delivery, Yen 2.16 for Nov 20 delivery, Yen 3.14 for Nov 21 delivery, and Yen 2.81 for Nov 22 delivery. For Nov 19 delivery alone, the West outperformed the East by Yen 0.34.

In the fuel markets, LNG and crude oil prices firmed up from the end of the previous week. Coal prices remained almost intact.

DES Northeast Asia spot LNG prices hovered in the high $14 level per mmBtu for prompt January 2025 arrival as of Nov 21, up about 30cts from the end of the previous week (Nov 15). European natural gas prices sustained strength, tracking the previous week's trend, and the LNG market in Northeast Asia followed suit. In Europe, gas prices were pushed up by growing demand amid falling temperatures and lower output from wind generation. In addition, buybacks by traders in the Northeast Asia market also contributed to the rise in LNG prices. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced on Nov 20 that Japan's LNG inventories for power generation stood at 2.28 mil mt as of Nov 17, growing for a third straight week by 70,000mt from a week before. The level was up both from 2.16 mil mt as of end-November last year and the average of past five years at 2.13 mil mt.

FOB Newcastle thermal coal prices in Australia stood in the mid $141 level per ton for November 2024 loading as of Nov 21. The level was almost steady from the end of the previous week.

In the crude oil market, WTI crude for January 2025 stood in the low $70 level as of the afternoon on Nov 22 while Brent crude for January 2025 was trading in the low $74 level. Both WTI and Brent were up more than $3 from with the end of the previous week. Intensifying tensions in Ukraine served as a bullish factor.

The actual highest price during the week was at Yen 24.52 in four areas including Chubu, Hokuriku, Kansai and Shikoku for Nov 18 delivery and six areas in West Japan for Nov 19 delivery. Meanwhile, the actual lowest price during the week was at Yen 0.01 in Shikoku for Nov 20 and Nov 22 delivery.

By area, the weekly average of the 24-hour spot prices was at Yen 15.47 in Hokkaido, up Yen 2.18 from the previous week, Yen 15.75 in Tohoku, up Yen 2.43, Yen 16.19 in Tokyo, up Yen 2.50, Yen 16.18 in Chubu, up Yen 3.09, Yen 14.34 in Hokuriku and Kansai, up Yen 2.36, Yen 14.07 in Chugoku, up Yen 2.09, Yen 10.93 in Shikoku, up Yen 1.17, and Yen 12.82 in Kyushu, up Yen 2.72.

In the JEPX auction, volumes of offers were 1,014.48 mil kWh on a weekly average basis, down 5.4% from the previous week. Meanwhile, bids on a weekly average basis expanded by 23.8% to 983.26 mil kWh. The weekly average of trade volumes grew by 4.1% to 727.07 mil kWh.

Power demand in nine areas of Japan during Nov 18-22 was a combined 11,425.91 mil kWh, up 7.6% from 10,621.17 mil kWh during Nov 11-15. The figure was up 1.6% from the corresponding period a year earlier. Demand during Nov 20-24, 2023 after day of week adjustment was 11,242.28 mil kWh.

Deals reported on TOCOM (Tokyo Commodity Exchange) during Nov 18-22 were as below.

Deals reported on EEX (European Energy Exchange) during Nov 18-22 were as below.

In the final week of November, spot prices are expected to stay in a narrow range. The temperatures are forecast to be relatively comfortable, and heating demand will be limited excluding North Japan. Meanwhile, the weather is forecast to be partly rainy except the beginning and end of the week. Thus, day time prices are expected to underperform night time price at the beginning and end of the week while day and night time prices will likely show little difference in the middle of the week.