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Weekly Summary

LNG: Apr 8-12: Rises on Russian attack on gas storage in Ukraine

--DES Northeast Asia

In the DES Northeast Asia market last week, front month delivery rose around $10.05-10.35 once. Russia's attack on power plants and gas storage facilities in Ukraine triggered concerns about energy supply for Europe. As a result, the gain in the Netherlands' TTF natural gas market boosted the Northeast Asia delivery market as well.

The German state-run SEFE has shown an intention to use gas storage facilities in Ukraine for the winter. However, the Russian attack on the energy infrastructure in Ukraine might not allow them to use the facility. As of now, impacts on gas supply/demand balance in Europe have been limited; at the same time, sentiments in the market have turned bullish, causing worries about tightening supply/demand balance in LNG worldwide. As of now, we could not confirm a tightness in the supply-demand balance in Northeast Asia. A Japanese end-user said, "While we consumed inventories to some degree due to the low temperature in March, we still carry a high level of inventory. We don't have plans to buy spot cargo." The 300 MW No. 5-power unit at the Kashima Kyodo thermal power plant, a joint venture between JERA and Nippon Steel, has halted since Apr 6 owing to fuel constraints, but we could not find a related demand increase for LNG either.

In Singapore, many market participants were off on Apr 10 owing to the Hari Raya Puasa holiday, which celebrates the end of holy Ramadan fasting. As for demand from China, the local buyers in China have prioritized using domestic gas and pipeline gas, which were exported from central Asia as well as Russia, demanding less for LNG. "The recovery of the Chinese economy is still on the way, so we cannot count on a huge increase in demand from the industrial sector in China" (a Japanese end-user).

 

--FOB Middle East, DES South Asia and the Middle East

In the Middle East, Jordan refrained from buying spot cargoes in recent days. After Iran showed an attitude to revenge Israel that gave an airstrike to the Iranian embassy in Syria, there were concerns about deterioration of the Middle East situation but natural gas supply from Israel to Jordan via pipelines was not disrupted at the moment. Additionally, Jordan was also keen to install renewable energy such as solar power and wind power. According to International Renewable Energy Agency, renewable energy accounted for 39.1% of the power mix.

 

--FOB Atlantic, DES Europe and South America

Supply concerns were spreading after Russia attacked storage facilities in Ukraine. Among the gas storage facilities in Ukraine, the tank itself has been located 2,000 meters underground below the surface, not being damaged directly. Its operation has not been affected as well. However, the facilities on the ground might be damaged by the Russian attack in the future, and we might have troubles with gas withdrawal in such a case. "It is true that the military tension has risen" (a trader). In Argentina, South America, the Milei Administration raised city gas tariffs in April.

 

Tokyo : LNG Team  Yamamoto   +81-3-3552-2411Copyright © RIM Intelligence Co. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.