In China, the domestic acrylonitrile (AN) market is overall expected to be soft in the second half of 2025. Although the AN market might be temporarily raised by the firm feedstock propylene market, AN prices would unlikely rise sharply. This is because profitability of derivative makers continues to deteriorate and the operation rates of their facilities remain low. However, new facilities are scheduled to start up in the period July to September onward and supply might increase.

On the supply side, Jilin Petrochemical is scheduled to start up its AN facility with annual production capacity of 260,000mt in the period July to September. INEOS would start operations of its AN facility with annual production capacity of 130,000mt in Tianjin Nangang in the period October to December. If these facilities smoothly start up, domestic AN production capacity would reach a total of 5.709mil mt.

On the demand side, Yulong Petrochemical with annual production capacity of 300,000mt and Jilin Petrochemical with annual production capacity of 600,000mt are scheduled to start up their ABS facilities in the second half of 2025. Further, Daqing Petrochemical started up its facility in mid-June. Supply from Daqing Petrochemical and Shandong Yike is forecast to grow. Zhejiang Petrochemical is also raising the operation rate of its second ABS facility gradually.

Under such circumstances, supply/demand balance of AN would largely be influenced by the operational status of new facilities of derivative ABS going forward.