OPEC Plus production rise draws attention

Among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC, or OPEC plus, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman have been raising crude oil production since April 2025. Daily production volumes were increased by 138,000barrel (bbl) in April, by 411,000bbl each in May, June and July, by 548,000bbl in August, by 547,000bbl in September and by 137,000bbl each in October, November and December. Along with this, the voluntary production cut of 2.20 mil bbl per day that these eight members started in January 2024 was virtually drawing to a close.

In 2026, supply/demand of crude oil depends on production increase by OPEC Plus members. OPEC Plus confirmed that these eight members would stop a production rise in January to March 2026 period at the ministerial meeting on Nov 30,2025. But the production program is undecided for April onward and it is unclear whether the eight members could continue raising production. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE aims to regain market share and have intention to raise production further, Russia does not hope for a decline in crude oil prices, which are main sources for the war costs as the country is invading Ukraine. Further, Algeria and Oman have limited room to increase production. In fact, the production target of OPEC Plus and an actual production increase were wide apart as of October 2025. The eight members raised production by a total of 2.047 mil b/d in April to October period. The volumes were smaller than the target production increase volumes of 2.603 mil b/d by 556,000b/d. If Saudi Arabia and the UAE hope for further production increase, OPEC Plus might need to stop the coordinated production cut of 2.00 mil b/d that is conducted by all members.

Market players should pay attention to movements of non-OPEC members. Guyana in South America supplied sweet crude oil Golden Arrowhead, Unity Gold and Payara Gold on a spot basis for the first time in September 2025. In September, production of Angolan Agogo started. Further, Niger began export of Melek crude oil in May 2024. Global crude oil supply is on the rise. Many end-users in India have been increasing crude oil procurement volumes from South America including Guiana and Brazil, and West Africa since the US placed two Russian major oil companies on the sanctions list. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are not expected to progress smoothly but it is easy to procure crude oil alternative to Russian supplies. Meanwhile, crude oil production is expected to decrease slightly but would remain high. According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Nov 12, 2025, crude oil production volumes in the US are estimated to stand at 13.58 mil b/d, down 10,000 b/d from 2025 when the production volumes are expected to reach record highs.

While the reciprocal tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump and the recession in the real estate industry in China are having negative impact on the global economy, crude oil demand would unlikely increase in the short run. In 2026, the global crude oil market is forecast to face risks of oversupply throughout the year.