Restart of Suez might reduce bunker demand

Bunker demand in 2026 is forecast to decrease by as much as 5% year on year.

According to data by major shipping broker Clarksons, the number of vessels was 114,657 worldwide as of September 2025, up 4.0% from January 2024. On a deadweight capacity (dwt) basis, the total is 2.491 billion dwt, up 5.8%. While the number of vessels is on the rise, fuel efficiency per vessel is improving. New vessels with high fuel efficiency are built and old vessels with low fuel efficiency retire. In addition, fuel consumption of existing vessels is decreasing not only by replacement of vessels but also by introduction of environmental technologies and low steaming. Most market players expect that sales volumes of fuels would not increase and worldwide bunker sales volume would be unchanged or decrease in 2026.

Fuel consumption volumes are affected by the shipping market too. If supply/demand of vessels tightens, shipping companies raise speed of vessels and maximize operation rates. A vessel's fuel consumption is proportional to the cube of its speed, which means that if the speed of vessels increases along with the high market, the vessels' fuel consumption rises. However, a shipping company forecast that the shipping market would not become volatile.

On the other hand, the situation of the Red Sea largely affects bunker demand as well. In November 2025, news reports said that Yemen's Houthis showed intention to suspend attacks on commercial vessels passing through the Red Sea. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), freight transiting the Red Sea accounts for about 15% of global trade. If the Red Sea situation normalizes and vessels switch routes from via the Cape of Good Hope to via the Red Sea, bunker demand might sharply decrease.

Houthis began attacks on commercial vessels in November 2023. Thus, many shipping companies changed Asia-Europe routes to via the Cape of Good Hope although they used to take routes that pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal to sail to the Mediterranean Sea. In 2023, 26,434 vessels passed through the Suez Canal. But the number of vessels passing through the canal halved to 13,213 in 2024. It takes one to two more weeks for the Cape of Good Hope routes than the Red Sea routes. Therefore, vessels need to replenish more fuels in Singapore to take the Cape of Good Hope routes. If the Red Sea routes become available, such special demand disappears and bunker demand is much affected.

At present, Japanese shipping companies are cautious about moving vessels to around the Red Sea. Shipping companies cannot decide the restart of sending vessels to the areas by themselves as they need to discuss with insurance companies and shipowners. In addition, voyage days for routes via the Cape of Good Hope are long, which tightens supply/demand of vessels and supports the market. This also seems to be one of the reasons why shipping companies are cautious about taking routes via the Red Sea. For shipping companies, safe voyages are the most important. So, they feel it very risky to take routes via the Red Sea, where the situation is still unstable. But shipping companies might be forced to change the policy depending on requests from cargo owners and movements of non-Japanese shipping companies.