Wholesale prices expected stable
For the power market in 2026, the fuel market and nuclear power generation continue drawing attention. Many market players forecast wholesale prices to be stable. As mentioned below, Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) is steadily preparing for the restart of the No.6 1,356megawatt(MW) ABWR reactor of its Kashiwazaki Kariwa power station in Niigata. Fuel prices are forecast to be stable and market players are not excessively concerned about the geopolitical risks. The Agency for Natural Resources and Energy was wary of supply/demand in Tokyo in summer of 2025 but supply/demand of power was stable even in the scorching heat in summer of 2024. Most market players are optimistic about it.

The power market is likely to be largely affected by supply/demand of LNG. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that global LNG supply in 2026 would grow by around 7% from the previous year, which would be the largest increase since 2019. Under such circumstances, gas prices are predicted to be stable and this would curb power prices in Japan, whose portion of thermal power generation is high.

In crude oil market, the geopolitical risks such as the Middle East and the Ukraine situation are likely to continue. Market players also need to pay attention to moves of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC, or OPEC plus. At present, supply is perceived to be in surplus.

Regarding coal for power generation, countries are trying to avoid using coal to deal with de-carbonization. But since supply is expected to decrease due to closure of many coal mines, the coal market is forecast to stay at the same level as present prices at around $100/mt. Coal thermal power generation would continue to be base load power sources for the stable supply of power in Japan and a certain demand is observed in other countries. The market is unlikely to drop for the time being.

In 2026, TEPCO would restart the 1,356MW No.6 ABWR reactor of its Kashiwazaki Kariwa power station. As the governor of Niigata prefecture, Hideyo Hanazumi, approved the restart. TEPCO is expected to restart the reactor in January 2026 at the earliest and would start commercial operations about one month after this.

With respect to the Tomari power station of Hokkaido Electric Power, the governor of Hokkaido, Naomichi Suzuki, announced his approval for the restart of the 912MW No.3 unit at the meeting of the Hokkaido prefectural assembly on Nov 28, 2025. Hokkaido Electric Power aims to restart the unit as early as possible in 2027. The reactor passed safety screenings by the Nuclear Regulation Authority in July 2025.

For the power futures market, market players are likely to pay attention to the Chubu market. The Europe Energy Exchange (EEX) listed the Chubu market in December 2025 and the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) is scheduled to start trading by spring in 2026. The TOCOM plans to change the time of night trading and off-exchange trading. The start time of overnight trading would change from 17:00 to 16:30. The EEX is currently holding the overwhelming share of the Japan power futures market. However, trading volumes in the TOCOM for January to October 2025 period increased by fivefold from the corresponding period of the previous year. Market players are paying attention to how the TOCOM would get the trading volumes from the EEX. Further, the EEX is scheduled to start overnight trading in Kansai by spring in 2025, which is conducted only in Tokyo at present.