【LNG】

　This winter's LNG supply and demand will hinge on the lifting of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. Before the outbreak of the Iran war, the prevailing view was that the market would move toward a supply surplus starting in late 2026, driven by increased production from new projects such as North America's Golden Pass and LNG Canada's second liquefaction train. However, as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz drags on, a European analyst has indicated that Qatar's 2026 export volume will "remain at around 25 million metric tons," suggesting that even increased production in North America will not be enough to fully offset the decline in Middle Eastern LNG. While the prolonged late-summer heat caused by the Super El Niño phenomenon could dampen Europe's appetite for stockpiling and cap price gains, "in the unlikely event of a severe winter, DES Northeast Asia prices for November-February delivery will not fall below $20," said Masanori Odaka, Vice President, Gas & LNG at Rystad Energy.

【LPG】

　Amid the turmoil in the Middle East, the outlook for the restoration of supply systems by Middle Eastern gas producers remains uncertain even as of this winter. The outcome of peace talks between the US and Iran has become unclear, and attacks are currently being exchanged by both sides. Going forward, changes in trade flows are expected to occur to avoid the instability of Middle Eastern supplies. While attempts are being made to supply Middle Eastern products via ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in Oman or shipments loaded at Yanbu via the Red Sea, geopolitical risks are rising for these routes as well. Ships loaded at Yanbu are being rerouted through the Suez Canal, and further increases in freight costs are anticipated due to the extended voyage duration. Saudi Aramco, the largest supplier in the Middle East, appears to have no clear timeline for restoring operations at its Juayma facility. Under these circumstances, it is highly likely that the global landscape--in which the primary source of LPG has shifted from the Middle East to the US--will remain unchanged. In response, US suppliers are proceeding with expansion projects at their LPG terminals; however, there is a high probability that US LPG prices will once again reach high levels due to concentrated demand during the winter months. Furthermore, drought caused by the El Niño phenomenon is forecast for the Panama Canal starting in the second half of this year, raising concerns that congestion caused by delays in transit will drive up the cost of canal transit rights. Some analysts predict that the competition for US LPG will heat up again, pushing benchmark prices and procurement costs to new record highs.