The global monthly bunker sales volume for 2024 was estimated to decrease by about 3% from 2023, reaching almost 12.1 million tons, based on questionnaire conducted by Rim Intelligence. Among these figures, Asia is expected to account for 60% of the total, followed by Europe at 20%, North America at 10%, South America and the Middle East accounted for the rest. With the International Maritime Organization (IMO) aiming to reduce GHG emissions from international shipping by 20-30% compared to 2008 levels by 2030, the procurement of alternative fuels such as LNG and biofuels, as well as the introduction of emission trading systems, is accelerating in 2024.
However, amidst the real estate downturn initiated by China, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, escalating tensions in Palestine-Israel, anticipated economic recessions in the United States, etc., the prospects for economic recovery in 2024 remain distant, posing a high likelihood of reduced shipping activity. Ship types facing difficulties in acquiring expensive alternative fuels were anticipated to continue implementing slow steaming voyages beyond 2024, and growing views that a decline in bunker demand would retreat from 2023.
On the other hand, there were heightening expectations that a temporary increase in demand in Singapore, ARA, and Africa during the quarter to March, 2024 due to heightened geopolitical risks in the Red Sea/Suez Canal.
According to the questioner conducted by Rim Intelligence, the demand for alternative fuels is expected to consist of 60％ of LNG, 20% of bio-bunkers, 10 % of methanol and ammonia, and electricity and hydrogen accounted for the rest. With the expansion of newly constructed LNG-powered vessels and the establishment of LNG bunker supply systems in various countries, there would be a strong hope for a substantial increase in LNG bunker demand. However, it was projected that the growth of bio-bunkers will be moderate owing to shortages in biofuel feedstocks and concerns regarding lack of certified biofuel. Trials for methanol and ammonia were being conducted for domestic vessels and large container vessels for ocean-going vessels on a spot basis. However, significant expansion in demand for these as bond bunkers seems difficult reflecting a lack of supply systems.
The outlook for 2024 suggested a concentration of demand in ports capable of supplying both conventional bunker fuel oil and alternative fuels. Particularly, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Gibraltar, Fujairah, Singapore, Zhoushan, Hong Kong, Canada, and Houston were likely to meet higher demand.