LPG: Jun 21-25: CP forecast revised up on tight supply/demand
CFR Far East
The CFR Far East market surged last week on the back of rising crude prices as well as an upward revision of the expected July CP. Rim Asia Index for propane and butane was at $651.75/mt and $651.75/mt as of Jun 24, up $27.50/mt from Jun 18. For pure propane, the number of sellers was gradually increasing since congestions at the Panama Canal eased. Supply/demand for even-split cargoes, however, remained tight. A 23,000mt propane cargo for second-half July delivery to Japan was said to have been traded on Jun 23 at a level equivalent to a premium in the high $10's/mt to just above $20/mt to the July CP. On the other hand, a 23,000mt 50:50 cargo for second-half July delivery to South China was reportedly traded at a premium in the mid $40's/mt to the July CP.
FOB Middle East
Saudi Aramco was seen to have low stocks for propane and this led to supply shortage of even-split cargoes. On the other hand, spot demand for even-split cargoes emerged from India, Southeast Asia and Taiwan. Additionally, some traders were interested to procure about 45,000mt 50:50 cargoes for mid-July to August loading to cover their short-positions. With tight supply/demand and a gain in crude prices, the July CP forecast was revised up to about $625/mt for propane and about $630/mt for butane.
Asia Pressurized Market
Offers for July loading from South China were still heard at a premium in the low $40's/mt to the July CP. Buying interest, however, was weak as buyers hesitated to enter talks based on the July CP. One importer in Vietnam also saw that it had high inventories and had no plans to buy July delivery to Haiphong.