LNG: Nov 4-8: Loose supply/demand balance weighs on prices
In the DES Northeast Asia market last week, the front delivery dipped to around $13.45. Amid various scenarios talked in the market with Donald Trump becoming the next US President, prices fell on perceptions of a loose supply/demand balance. Supply/demand was slackening in Northeast Asia. Sellers holding cargoes of US origin had a plan to sell those cargoes for second-half December to January delivery in the DES Northeast Asia market by taking advantage of low freight costs and contango, but this eventually led to ample supply, according to a Japanese trader, since there were many players taking such a strategy. In the market, British Shell, German Uniper and US Freepoint continuously showed selling interest for late December delivery. As Donald Trump won the US presidential election, sources forecasted that the LNG industry would change in many aspects. The approvals of new LNG projects in the US that the Biden administartion paused were expected to be lifted in the near future. Along with an increase in the export volume from the US, many sources speculated that LNG supply would become abundant from about 2026. As a result, the LNG market would come under downward pressure from the mid- and long-term perspective, according to these sources.
--FOB Middle East, DES South Asia and the Middle East ADNOC Gas in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) inked a sales and purchase agreement (SPA) with German state-run SEFE for an LNG long-term contract. Under the contract, ADNOC Gas would provide 1.0 mil mt/year of LNG for 15 years starting 2028 upon the commencement of the operation at the 9.60mil mt/year Ruwais project, which was under development. Both companies signed the heads of agreement (HOA) this spring.
--FOB Atlantic, DES Europe and South America US Sempra announced that the development of the 13.00 mil mt/year Port Arthur project phase 2 in Texas has been under progress smoothly. The project was expected to file for admission to the US Department of Energy (DOE) for exports to the non-Free Trade Agreement (FTA) countries with the U.S, because Donald Trump becoming the U.S. President would allow them to acquire export permits easily.
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