In the day-ahead market on JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange), the 24-hour spot power prices on a weekly average basis for Mar 10-14 delivery pulled back sharply from the previous week in both East Japan (50Hz) and West Japan (60Hz). With spring climate looming across Japan, a remarkable drop in heating demand loosened up supply-demand fundamentals, boosting downside pressure on spot prices. During Mar 13-17, the highest temperature rose above 20 degrees in some parts of Kanto and further west amid early summer climate. On Mar 13, the peak demand in Tokyo was limited to 33.87MW, the lowest level for a weekday since the middle of November last year.

In Tokyo and Kansai, the key areas in East Japan and West Japan, the 24-hour average posted a difference in favor of the West by Yen 0.13 for Mar 10 delivery, Yen 0.73 for Mar 11 delivery, Yen 0.71 for Mar 12 delivery, Yen 1.77 for Mar 13 delivery, and Yen 0.56 for Mar 14 delivery.

The fuel market trends in the second week of March were detailed as follows.

DES Northeast Asia spot LNG prices stood in the mid $13 per mmBtu for prompt April 2025 arrival as of Mar 13, rebounding by more than $1 from the end of the previous week (Mar 7). European natural gas prices gained ground, and the LNG market in Northeast Asia followed suit. LNG prices also found support from looming buying interest from Northeast Asia. A losing streak until the previous week made LNG prices attractive, on top of a move to build up inventories. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced on Mar 12 that Japan's LNG inventories for power generation stood at 1.79 mil mt as of Mar 9, down 190,000mt from a week before. The figure was up from 1.48 mil mt as of end-March last year, but down from the average of past five years at 2.03 mil mt.

FOB Newcastle thermal coal prices in Australia stood in the mid $101 level per ton for March 2025 loading as of Mar 13. The level was down slightly less than $2 from the end of the previous week. Bargain hunting pushed up the coal market in the previous week. But such a move came to a lull in the second week, leading to the price decline.

In the crude oil market, WTI crude for April 2025 stood in the high $66 level per barrel as of the afternoon on Mar 14 while Brent crude for May 2025 was trading in the low $70 level. Compared with the end of the previous week, WTI was up about 50cts while Brent was almost stable. At the beginning of the week, crude prices came under pressure from recession concerns in US and weaker equity prices. But bargain hunting underpinned the market later in the week.

The actual highest price during the week was at Yen 20.67 in six areas in West Japan for Mar 10 delivery. Meanwhile, the actual lowest price during the week was at Yen 0.01 in Hokkaido and Tohoku for Mar 13 delivery, and eight areas except for Hokkaido as well as the System Price (SP) for Mar 14 delivery.

By area, the weekly average of the 24-hour spot prices was at Yen 11.49 in Hokkaido, down Yen 3.47 from the previous week, Yen 10.85 in Tohoku, down Yen 4.16, Yen 11.30 in Tokyo, down Yen 3.85, Yen 12.11 in Chubu, down Yen 7.11, Yen 12.08 in Hokuriku and Kansai, down Yen 7.22, Yen 11.86 in Chugoku, down Yen 7.27, Yen 11.48 in Shikoku, down Yen 4.65, and Yen 10.74 in Kyushu, down Yen 4.31.

In the JEPX auction, volumes of offers were 1,377.08 mil kWh on a weekly average basis, up a whopping 19.0% from the previous week. Meanwhile, bids on a weekly average basis shrank by 10.2% to 964.05 mil kWh. The weekly average of trade volumes waned by 0.3% to 808.86 mil kWh.

Power demand in nine areas of Japan during Mar 10-14 was a combined 11,922.08 mil kWh, down 11.4% from 13,461.64 mil kWh during Mar 3-7. The figure was down 5.9% from the corresponding period a year earlier. Demand during Mar 11-15, 2024 after day of week adjustment was 12,666.75 mil kWh.

Deals reported on TOCOM (Tokyo Commodity Exchange) during Mar 10-14 were as below.

Deals reported on EEX (European Energy Exchange) during Mar 10-14 were as below.

In the third week of March, spot prices are expected to chase upside from the second week. It is believed a return of chilly winter climate will boost heating demand and give a bullish impact on spot prices. Meanwhile, spot prices will find support from limited scope for photovoltaic generation, with cloudy weather widely expected in the first half of the week. But the weather is forecast to recover toward the latter half of the week with rebounding temperatures, so that spot prices are likely to track a downward trend. A source at a power producer and supplier said, "In both East Japan and West Japan, the 24-hour average will exceed Yen 10 in the first half of the week. But weather conditions will push down spot prices below Yen 10 toward the latter half of the week." Still, an increasing number of thermal units are scheduled to halt operation mainly for regular maintenance, leaving a chance of unexpected price spikes in case of any troubles at generation facilities.