LPG: Apr 7-11: Demand from China retreating on trade conflict
CFR Far East
In the CFR Far East market last week, prices were sharply down due to retreating demand. The Rim Asia Index for propane and butane as of Apr 10 was at $526.25/mt and $506.25/mt respectively, down $57.00/mt and $67.00/mt from Apr 4. Along with trade conflict between the US and China, market sources perceived that demand of US-origin cargoes from China might disappear and this was cited as a bearish factor. On the other hand, the spread between propane and butane prices on the expected CP widened and a decrease in butane prices were smaller than that for propane. Chinese players were actively buying cargoes before May 13th delivery and Japanese importers or South Korean importers sold their cargoes. On the other hand, in the market for second-half May delivery onwards, the number of sellers was gradually increasing and Chinese players wanted to resell their cargoes.
FOB Middle East
For May loading, buying interest seemed to be strong. On the other hand, sellers refrained from showing offers. Owing to the US-China trade conflict, Chinese players were expecte4d to buy Middle East cargoes instead of US cargoes. Under this situation, some sources perceived that the propane/butane spread in the CP would widen to $20/mt since supply/demand of propane cargoes in the Middle East might be tighten. In view of this, the May CP was forecast at around $565/mt for propane and around $545/mt for butane.
Asia Pressurized Market
Ahead of China's implementation of additional tariffs on US imports, exports to China seemed to be active. A South Korean importer was said to have sold five pressurized cargoes to China in the middle of this week. In the Philippines, one importer had shut down its petrochemical plant and was selling LPG in the domestic market. The importer apparently tried to enlarge its market share by lowering its selling price considerably.