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Weekly Summary

Power: May 26-30: Prices fall back as unseasonal hot climate come to lull

In the day-ahead market on JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange), the 24-hour spot power prices on a weekly average basis for May 26-30 delivery eased back from the previous week in both East Japan (50Hz) and West Japan (60Hz). Unseasonal heat waves were alleviated compared with the previous week, and waning buying interest capped upside room in spot prices. Especially, West Japan posted remarkable weakness. A source at a power producer and supplier said, "A restart of Kansai EPC's 826MW No3 reactor at its Mihama nuclear power station put a lid on spot prices in West Japan." The Mihama No3 reactor entered controlled operation starting May 23 after reactivation on May 21. The output recovered to full capacity as of May 30 morning.

 

In Tokyo and Kansai, the key areas in East Japan and West Japan, the 24-hour average posted a difference in favor of the East by Yen 5.77 for May 26 delivery, Yen 7.01 for May 27 delivery, Yen 5.15 for May 28 delivery, Yen 3.36 for May 29 delivery and Yen 3.92 for May 30 delivery. The East-West gap widened even further.

 

The fuel market trends in the final week of May were detailed as follows.

 

DES Northeast Asia spot LNG prices edged up further to the mid $12 level per mmBtu for prompt June 2025 arrival as of May 29, rising by about 5cts from the end of the previous week (May 23). The LNG market in Northeast Asia moved in line with European natural gas prices. In Northeast Asia, LNG prices still lacked upward momentum amid slack buying interest from end-users. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced on May 28 that Japan's LNG inventories for power generation stood at 2.16 mil mt as of May 25, up 180,000mt from a week before. The figure was up from 2.07 mil mt as of end-May last year, but down from the average of past five years at 2.18 mil mt.

 

FOB Newcastle thermal coal prices in Australia stood in the mid $105 level per ton for June 2025 loading as of May 29. The level was up about 50cts from the end of the previous week. In Australia, coal prices previously maintained strength in the aftermath of lower production that was caused by a flooding. But coal prices turned softer from the middle of the week.

 

In the crude oil market, WTI crude for July 2025 stood in the high $60 level per barrel as of May 30 morning while Brent crude for July 2025 was trading in the low $64 level. Both WTI and Brent were down about 50cts from the end of the previous week. Crude futures were overshadowed by prospects that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers, or OPEC plus, would pump up more crude oil in July. A slowdown in Chinese crude oil demand also weighed on the market.

 

The actual highest price during the week was at Yen 18.01 in Tohoku and Tokyo for May 29 delivery. Meanwhile, the actual lowest price during the week was at Yen 0.01 in seven areas excluding Tokyo and Chubu for May 26 delivery, Hokkaido and five areas in West Japan excluding Chubu for May 27 delivery, eight areas excluding Tokyo for May 28 delivery, and Hokkaido for May 29 delivery.

 

By area, the weekly average of the 24-hour spot prices was at Yen 7.39 in Hokkaido, down Yen 2.18 from the previous week, Yen 10.26 in Tohoku, down Yen 0.66, Yen 12.10 in Tokyo, down Yen 0.56, Yen 8.29 in Chubu, down Yen 1.09, Yen 7.06 in Hokuriku and Kansai, down Yen 1.80, Yen 7.02 in Chugoku, down Yen 1.83, Yen 6.94 in Shikoku, down Yen 1.71, and Yen 6.78 in Kyushu, down Yen 1.27.

 

In the JEPX auction, volumes of offers were 1,097.10 mil kWh on a weekly average basis, down 2.1% from the previous week. Meanwhile, bids on a weekly average basis shrank by 5.3% to 825.04 mil kWh. The weekly average of trade volumes dwindled by 4.7% to 669.07 mil kWh.

 

Power demand in nine areas of Japan during May 26-30 was a combined 10,1143.90 mil kWh, down 5.3% from 10,706.27 mil kWh during May 19-23. The figure was down 4.2% from the corresponding period a year earlier. Demand during May 27-31, 2024 after day of week adjustment was 10,593.66 mil kWh.

 

Deals reported on TOCOM (Tokyo Commodity Exchange) during May 26-30 were as below.

 

Deals reported on EEX (European Energy Exchange) during May 26-30 were as below.

 

In the first week of June, spot prices are expected to outperform the levels in the final week of May. The temperatures are forecast to rebound, with the day's high to rise near 30 degrees from Kanto to Kyushu from the middle of the week. A possible pickup in air-conditioning demand is believed to give a bullish impact on spot prices. Citing the price outlook for the first week of June, a source at a power producer and supplier said, "I believe the 24-hour average will be at Yen 12-13 in East Japan and Yen 8-9 in West Japan." The key will be when the rainy season kicks off and solar power supply begins to shrink.

 

JEPX: System Price (Day Ahead 24 hours)

Weekday Price

26-May

27-May

28-May

29-May

30-May

24-Hour Ave

8.13

8.80

8.33

10.19

10.31

Volume (MWh)

687,669

658,443

690,330

676,307

632,584

(unit: yen per kWh) (date: delivery day)  

 

Tokyo : Electricity Team  K.Karino   +81-3-3552-2411Copyright © RIM Intelligence Co. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.