LPG: Jun 9-13: CP forecast revised up on tension in Middle East
CFR Far East
In the CFR Far East market, propane prices advanced due to increased demand. Several operators of a propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant in China carried out a buy tender and traders trying to cover their short positions entered spot discussions. However, many players participated in the tenders and Chinese importers resold their cargoes. Sources believed that this capped the market. For butane, although demand for petrochemical use was strengthening, buyers felt that the prices were high and two Chinese players cancelled a buy tender for pure butane cargoes. On the other hand, as tension in the Middle East was escalating, supply for cargoes of special origin might to China decrease and some sources expected that the butane market might rise going forward. As of Jun 12, the Japan Index moved up by $9.25/mt from Jun 6 to $546.75/mt for propane and $516.75/mt for butane. The China Index for propane rose by $8.50/mt to $576.75/mt while that for butane declined by $17.50/mt to $528.50/mt.
FOB Middle East
For July loading, discussion levels for 44,000mt 50:50 cargoes fell to a discount of around $40/mt from the previous week. As demand for loading in the Midde East was sluggish, several players had even-split cargoes in surplus. Under such circumstances, it was reported that Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) in India had awarded a buy tender closing on Jun 5 and it had procured a 44,000mt 50:50 cargo to be loaded in July from a Middle Eastern trader at a discount of $40/mt. In the meantime, Israel struck Iran last Friday, causing a tension in the Middle East. Along with this, CP forward prices moved sharply up from the previous day. As CP forecasts were revised up, some sources viewed that the discount to the CP for even-split cargoes might widen, but many players stayed on the sidelines at the moment. The July CP forecast was revised up to $592/mt for propane and at $562/mt for butane as of last Friday.
Asia Pressurized Market
For South China loading, discussion levels fell to a premium in the $30's/mt to the July CP due to weak buying interest. In Malaysia, troubles occurred at a cracker of the country's petrochemical company Pengerang Refining and Petrochemical (PRefChem). The cracker of this company stopped but PRefChem tried to resume it on June 12. If the cracker resumed and operation became stable, PRefChem would not need to sell spot cargoes, according to sources.