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Weekly Summary

Power: Jun 9-13: Spot prices rise as rainy season trims solar supply

In the day-ahead market on JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange), the 24-hour spot power prices on a weekly average basis for Jun 9-13 delivery firmed up from the previous week in both East Japan (50Hz) and West Japan (60Hz). As the rainy season gripped the entire Japan, solar power supply shrank from the previous week, pushing up spot prices led by day time. Especially in West Japan with a heavy reliance on photovoltaic generation, solar power supply shrank remarkably and spot prices posted a steeper increase than in East Japan. But the price gain was limited as heat waves eased compared with the previous week.

 

In Tokyo and Kansai, the key areas in East Japan and West Japan, the 24-hour average posted a difference in favor of the East by Yen 2.10 for Jun 9 delivery, Yen 1.33 for Jun 10 delivery, Yen 1.29 for Jun 11 delivery, Yen 3.50 for Jun 12 delivery, and Yen 3.27 for Jun 13 delivery.

 

The fuel market trends in the second week of June were detailed as follows.

 

DES Northeast Asia spot LNG prices stayed in the low $12 level per mmBtu for prompt July 2025 arrival as of Jun 12, almost intact from the end of the previous week (Jun 6). The LNG market in Northeast Asia continued to mirror the trends in European natural gas prices. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced on Jun 11 that Japan's LNG inventories for power generation stood at 2.34 mil mt as of Jun 8, up 90,000mt from a week before. The figure was up both from 2.13 mil mt as of end-June last year and the average of past five years at 2.10 mil mt.

 

FOB Newcastle thermal coal prices in Australia stood at $104 for June 2025 loading as of Jun 12. The level was almost stable from the end of the previous week.

 

In the crude oil market, WTI crude for July 2025 surged to the mid $73 level per barrel as of 10:00 hours on Jun 13 while Brent crude for August 2025 was trading higher in the high $74 level. Both WTI and Brent were up a whopping about $9 from the end of the previous week.

Israel announced on Jun 13 that it launched preemptive attacks against Iran. Following the move, crude futures attracted a spate of buying in after-hours trade on the same day.

 

The actual highest price during the week was at Yen 17.01 in Tohoku and Tokyo for Jun 10 delivery. Meanwhile, the actual lowest price during the week was at Yen 0.01 in Hokkaido and Tohoku for Jun 9 and Jun 12 delivery.

 

By area, the weekly average of the 24-hour spot prices was at Yen 9.04 in Hokkaido, up Yen 1.87 from the previous week, Yen 10.12 in Tohoku, up Yen 1.35, Yen 12.25 in Tokyo, up Yen 0.53, Yen 10.14 in Chubu, up Yen 0.76, Yen 9.95 in Hokuriku and Kansai, up Yen 0.98, Yen 9.87 in Chugoku, up Yen 2.29, Yen 8.93 in Shikoku, up Yen 1.40, and Yen 9.97 in Kyushu, up Yen 2.48.

 

In the JEPX auction, volumes of offers were 1,060.71 mil kWh on a weekly average basis, down 9.6% from the previous week. Meanwhile, bids on a weekly average basis increased by 1.0% to 880.96 mil kWh. The weekly average of trade volumes waned by 2.0% to 701.59 mil kWh.

 

Power demand in nine areas of Japan during Jun 9-13 was a combined 10,833.87 mil kWh, up 3.3% from 10,488.93 mil kWh during Jun 2-6. The figure was down 5.1% from the corresponding period a year earlier. Demand during Jun 10-14, 2024 after day of week adjustment was 11,417.08 mil kWh.

 

Deals reported on TOCOM (Tokyo Commodity Exchange) during Jun 9-13 were as below.

 

Deals reported on EEX (European Energy Exchange) during Jun 9-13 were as below.

 

In the third week of June, concerns are growing over possible price hikes. In the power futures market, weekly contracts starting Jun 16 were actively traded for hedging in both East Japan and West Japan. The temperatures in the third week are forecast to rise sharply from the second week with relatively mild climate. The highest temperature is forecast to stay above 30 degrees from Tohoku to Kyushu throughout the week. The temperatures are even expected to exceed 35 degrees from southern Tohoku to Tokai mostly during the week. With many thermal units still off line for inspections, utilization of air-conditioners is likely to grow remarkably. As a result, a sharp fall in power reserve rates is believed to trim volumes of offers cast into the spot market. On the contrary, growing buying interest is widely expected to lift spot prices further. A source at a power producer and supplier said, "I believe the intraday high in spot prices will easily exceed Yen 20 in both East Japan and West Japan. The 24-hour average in Tokyo could rise near Yen 15. Even in Kansai, the base price may reach Yen 12-13."

 

JEPX: System Price (Day Ahead 24 hours)

Weekday Price

9-Jun

10-Jun

11-Jun

12-Jun

13-Jun

24-Hour Ave

8.13

8.80

8.33

10.19

10.31

Volume (MWh)

687,669

658,443

690,330

676,307

632,584

(unit: yen per kWh) (date: delivery day)  

 

Tokyo : Electricity Team  K.Karino   +81-3-3552-2411Copyright © RIM Intelligence Co. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.