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Weekly Summary

LNG: Jul 28-Aug1: Secondary sanctions raise concerns over imports from Russia

--DES Northeast Asia

Market sentiment turned bullish amid fears over tightening supply-demand fundamentals going forward. The phenomenon came principally from intensifying conflicts between the US and Russia over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. US President Donald Trump showed readiness to impose additional tariffs as sanctions against Russia if the country fails to accept a ceasefire deal by Aug 8. Trump also eyed exercising "secondary tariffs", saying he would impose levy on importing countries of Russian energy and weapons. The move could paralyze natural gas and LNG imports from Russia, leaving a threat that the balance of global supply-demand fundamentals would break down. At this stage, those countries that support Ukraine are exempt from secondary sanctions, so that Japan and South Korea are expected to continue to take term contract cargoes out of the 10.8 mil mt/year Sakhalin 2 project for the time being. But a possibility cannot be ruled out that even those pro-Ukraine countries would be forced to embargo Russian cargoes, depending on the fate of the US-Russia tension.

 

--FOB Middle East, DES South Asia and the Middle East

State-run Indian Oil Corp (IOC) purchased one cargo for delivery to the 17.5 mil mt/year Dahej terminal during Aug 20-22 or Aug 29-31 in a tender closed on Jul 29. The price was around $11.50. The tender also called for another cargo to be delivered to the 5 mil mt/year Dhamra terminal during Aug 6-18 or Aug 22-31, but the cargo was unawarded.

 

--FOB Atlantic, DES Europe and South America

Colombia's state-run Calamari LNG apparently picked up one cargo for Aug 10-15 delivery to the 2.9 mil mt/year Cartagena terminal from British BP in a tender closed on Jul 30, thought the awarded price was not immediately confirmed. Including the cargo, Calamari at least purchased a combined three spot cargoes from BP in July.

 

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