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Weekly Summary

LNG: Feb 9-13: DES NEA market fluctuates

--DES Northeast Asia

Market volatility persists, with many players refraining from entering negotiations due to uncertain outlooks. Consequently, the market remains quiet. Furthermore, as LNG supply and demand are still considered balanced, most consumers are not rushing to make spot purchases. However, severe cold is spreading across Northeast Asia. A city gas company in western Japan said, "The cold spell intensified since late January, with many days seeing minimum temperatures below zero. Consequently, gas sales volumes are increasing and are slightly exceeding previous projections." While China currently enjoys relatively warm weather, forecasts indicate a significant drop in temperatures starting later this week due to an approaching cold wave. Average temperatures in the northeast could drop by over 20 degrees Celsius, while southern regions like Fujian and Hunan are also expected to see lows below zero. Although Chinese gas demand is retreating ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, if the chilly climate persists, it cannot be ruled out that players interested in spot purchases for inventory replenishment may emerge after the holiday.

 

--FOB Middle East, DES South Asia and the Middle East

India's state-run GAIL apparently awarded a swap tender. In the tender closed on Feb 9, GAIL purchased a combined two cargoes, or one each for Feb 22-27 delivery to the 22.5 mil mt/year Dahej terminal and Mar 1-8 delivery to the 5 mil mt/year Dabhol terminal on a DES basis. Instead, GAIL sold a combined two cargoes, or one each for Jan 1-31 and Feb 8-9 loading out of the 5.25 mil mt/year Cove Point project in the US on a DES Northwest Europe basis. A source at a Japanese trading house noted the gap between DES Europe and DES India prices was around 30cts.

 

--FOB Atlantic, DES Europe and South America

In Europe, a deal was wrapped up for first-half March delivery. The price was at a discount of $1.10 to the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) natural gas quotations for March, with the negative spread widening by 10cts from the previous day.

 

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