LNG: Sep 7-11: DES NE Asia rises for 5th straight day to yearly high
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Last Friday, the DES Northeast Asia market stretched a winning streak to five days and discussion levels for second-half October delivery climbed to about $29.45/mmBtu. In addition to growing concerns that the war in Iran will continue as long as the Trump administration remains in power, Houthi attacks have intensified in western Yemen, which borders the Red Sea, further choking energy supplies including LNG from the Middle East. The market was gripped by a series of bullish factors with robust buyback demand for second-half delivery to Northeast Asia. European Trafigura last Thursday purchased one cargo for Oct 11-13 delivery from PetroChina at a premium of 55cts to DES Northeast Asia spot quotations for November. The deal materialized after Trafigura revised up its premium by 40cts from the previous day. A Japanese analyst said, "The move well explains how tight supply for prompt delivery is." Meanwhile, the perception persists that actual supply-demand fundamentals are not tight. Indeed, some sellers, encouraged by the recent surge in prices, are showing willingness to sell multiple cargoes. QatarEnergy Trading (QET) as well as French TotalEnergies offered four cargoes and two cargoes, respectively, for second-half October delivery. An Asian trader pointed out that, based on PetroChina, which owns import terminals in China, having sold cargoes as mentioned above, if supply/demand fundamentals were truly tight, PetroChina would prioritize supplying to its own country through its subsidiaries. One Japanese end-user also said that it was not considering spot procurement, citing that its own supply and demand were balanced.
--FOB Middle East, DES South Asia and the Middle East Spot demand from South Asai was robust. Indian gas firm GAIL purchased one cargo for Nov 16-30 arrival at $26.20 in a tender closed on Sep 8. Indian state-run Baharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) purchased one cargo for Sep 10-13 delivery in a tender closed on Sep 7 in the high $26s level. India's state-owned Indian Oil Corp (IOC) also procured one cargo each for September to October delivery via two tenders closed on Sep 7 and 8.
--FOB Atlantic, DES Europe and South America State-owned Angola LNG issued a sell tender on a DES basis. The tender covers one cargo from the 5.2 mil mt/year Angola project scheduled for delivery from late September through early October. Potential destinations include Brazil, Europe, Egypt, India, and Pakistan. The tender will close on Sep 9 with bids valid through Sep 10.
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